zimfinalpush
Zimbabwe's prospects for change!
http://www.thezimbabwean.co.uk/viewinfo.cfm?id=2890
The recent elections in Zimbabwe
Tragically, that chance was squandered and now there is very little hope for the short or even medium term.
Why did he do it? Why did he blow this last chance to redeem himself, to put an end to isolation and ostracism from all but a few countries. Even his African colleagues, while defending him in international fora for the sake of African solidarity – hold him at arm's length. They really regard him as an embarrassment. No longer does he receive regular invitations to state visits as he used to.
The Nigerians, who defended him to the hilt in the Commonwealth and his nearest neighbours Mozambique Zambia South Africa
His country is in an absolute mess. That much must surely be apparent even to him. There is no rule of law, no freedom of association or of the press. The police and army are politicized, the judiciary compromised, national institutions militarized. Zimbabwe
About three in five Zimbabweans are going to bed hungry tonight and one in four is HIV positive. One in four is living in exile. In a population of 12 million that doesn't leave many who are not affected by the tragedy that is Zimbabwe
As I speak tonight there is no fuel, no employment, no foreign currency, no security of tenure for property, no energy, and business confidence is at its lowest since independence. Health is in intensive care. Coca Cola is unavailable for the first time in decades, because of a shortage of sugar in a country that used to export the commodity.
This is the lot of the average Zimbabwean. But the Zanu (PF) officials and their hangers on are cushioned from these hardships by an intricate and well-developed system of patronage. They have been given jobs, farms, government contracts, licenses for hunting and photographic safaris – the list goes on and on.
One of the things Mugabe has successfully done is to compromise people, thus ensuring himself of their undying loyalty. This is true of the entire upper echelons of Zimbabwean society now – cabinet ministers, senior government officials, army and police officers, heads of parastatals and indigenous businessmen. A lot of them are in receipt of stolen property, or have contravened exchange control regulations.
For as long as they toe the line, these offences are overlooked. But let them dare to break ranks and the axe falls. Perfect examples of this is James Makamba – a businessman who dared to look at Grace Mugabe the wrong way, and former finance minister Chris Kuruneri who is still rotting in jail a year after being arrested. He started questioning things and was in favour of valuing the Zimbabwe
All those in power today know that their avarice has ruined the once-prosperous nation and they will never be chosen by the people to rule over them if free and fair elections are held.
A return to democracy effectively means loss of power, influence and control – and if they lose control most of them will surely end up in prison. Mugabe himself could be brought to stand trial for genocide in Matabeleland . Most of them would be prosecuted under a new government for their wholesale looting of state coffers and assets.
So any talk of a return to democracy for Zimbabwe
It would mean convincing them that they will be allowed to keep their ill-gotten gains, as well as a guarantee of their personal safety. Because of course, not only have they been responsible for the material suffering of Zimbabweans, but – far more significantly than that - they have also directly or indirectly sanctioned the pre, post and mid-election violence that has taken place increasingly over the years and left many bereaved, maimed, raped or disabled.
Obviously this is an almost impossible task. But is there any other way?
The Mugabe way is to up the stakes. He knows that he will one day have to compromise and so he is stacking whatever he can in his favour to give him a larger pile of bargaining chips. By this I mean statute books full of draconian legislation, stockpiles of armaments – so that if he makes a small concession it will be perceived by a world weary of his inhuman cruelty as significant in the light of his diabolic excesses.
The opposition MDC is now planning mass action. We know Mugabe will send his bully boys to crush this with brute force. It will be interesting to see, first of all the response of the people to the call for mass action – knowing that they will be mercilessly beaten, arrested and even killed. It will also be very interesting to see the level of violence unleashed on the protestors. Will the army go in and mow them down? Or will the police simply thrash them, arrest a few ringleaders and let the rest go?
One symptom of Mugabe's insanity is that he has become unpredictable. He is truly a loose cannon at this stage. The other debatable point is how far he is actually in control of the army and the police. This year has seen unprecedented levels of militarisation at every level – from cabinet to permanent secretaries, governors, members of parliament, several parastatals etc. Does Mugabe have a firm hold on all these generals?? Nobody knows for certain.
Because of the fear of losing power, fear of being tried for genocide and massive corruption – it is unlikely that Mugabe will even consider a return to democracy. It looks as though we will have to wait until he is out of the picture. It is simply not an option for him at the moment. The increasing militarisation that I have mentioned compounds the problem. Armies give or obey orders – they don't ask people what they would like.
So what I'm saying is that the status quo is likely to remain with all the attendant problems and consequences.
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